If Every Conference Championship Favorite Wins on Saturday, Ohio State Will Be In The Playoff
By: Alex Marcheschi
After Ohio State lost to Iowa, I thought all hopes of a Playoff bid went out the window. I was wrong. They went on to smash Michigan State, which could play a huge role now, and finished out the season looking pretty damn good. The committee released their new rankings tonight, and they had Wisconsin at #4.
That’s huge for the Buckeyes. Obviously beating Wisconsin will be no easy task, but as we’ve seen in the past, Urban has Wisco’s number and Ohio State is a different animal in a dome. The Buckeyes are built for playing indoors with raw speed and playmakers everywhere. The Badgers, on the other hand, are built for the slop. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ohio State smack Wisco and make a statement. For the rest of this blog, we have to assume that OSU handily beats Wisconsin. Now, let’s get into it.
Ohio State is favored by 6.5 over Wisconsin, Clemson is favored by 9.5 over Miami, Auburn is favored by 2.5 over Georgia and Oklahoma is favored by 7 over TCU. If everything plays out as Vegas thinks it will, Ohio State should be in the playoff. Yes, over Bama, Georgia and Miami.
Let me explain why.
Let’s start with Miami. If they lose to Clemson, they’ll have one bad loss to Pitt and a loss to Clemson with top 25 wins over #15 Notre Dame and #22 Virginia Tech. If Ohio State beats Wisconsin, they’ll have the bad loss to Iowa and a loss to another top four team in Oklahoma. However, they’ll have a conference title, a top 5 win, a top 10 win over PSU and a drubbing of #16 Michigan State. That easily tops Miami’s resume. The Canes are done with a loss to Clemson.
If Georgia loses to Auburn, they’ll have two losses, both to Auburn. Those are good losses obviously, but I just can’t see putting UGA in the playoff with a team that has already beat them twice. Yes, OSU’s Iowa loss was awful and Oklahoma smacked them, but when you compare resumes, the Buckeyes’ is simply better than Georgia’s. Georgia doesn’t have a top 10 win. Their best win keeps looking worse, #15 Notre Dame, and their only other top 25 win was at home against #25 Mississippi State. Like I said above, the Buckeyes would have the Big 10 title, a top 5 win, a top 10 win and the Sparty thrashing. Advantage OSU. Scheduling matters and the committee has shown they value quality wins over bad losses in the past. Winning a conference championship can’t hurt either.
Now for the controversial one…big bad Bama. This anecdote is key here:
If that’s true, then Ohio State should absolutely jump Bama with a win over the Badgers. Let’s just take a step back and look at Bama’s schedule:
Bama doesn’t have a top 15 win. Their best victory is a home win over #17 LSU, their second best win is a near loss to #24 Mississippi State and they smacked #25 Fresno State. I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but with a win on Saturday, OSU’s top three wins would blow Bama’s out of the water. Yes, the Iowa loss hurts, but per that tweet above, the committee sees “very little separation” between OSU and Bama right now. In my mind, that means they will value Ohio State’s Big 10 title and top four win heavily, thus vaulting them into the playoff.
Let me put it like this, if you were to swap out Bama’s uniforms for some gold and black Vandy threads and present them to the committee with that exact resume, the committee would laugh in your face. If all the favorites win this weekend, Bama has no business being in the playoff.
If everything goes as planned, the playoff will be Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma and Ohio State. It only makes sense.